Mesoscale Discussion 0009
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of the east central Georgia into central
   South Carolina Piedmont

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

   Valid 012127Z - 012330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercell structures accompanied by the risk for tornadoes
   may continue to develop through the 5-7 PM EST time frame,
   particularly with storms spreading into and across the Augusta GA
   vicinity, toward Columbia SC.

   DISCUSSION...A broken (northeast-southwest oriented) line of
   convection continues to progress eastward across Georgia, roughly
   aligned with a remnant 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet
   axis.  South of the northeastward advancing warm front, now roughly
   across and east of Athens into areas of South Carolina to the
   southwest of Columbia, at least weak low-level rotation has been
   evident along the length of the line.  However, most pronounced
   mesocyclogenesis, accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, has been
   within a corridor to the south/within the immediate wake of the warm
   front, perhaps aided by residual enhanced near-surface shear in the
   presence of a weakly destabilizing boundary layer.

   Strongest convection is now developing east-northeastward to the
   west and north of Augusta GA.  This appears likely to continue to
   spread into the South Carolina Piedmont through 5-7 PM.  Given the
   cool, stable nature of the boundary layer to the north of the sharp
   frontal zone, as convection crosses the front it should tend to
   weaken.  However, there appears a corridor across and east of the
   Augusta area where the environment appears to remain potentially
   more conducive to organizing and intensifying supercell structures
   capable of producing tornadoes. This could approach the Columbia
   area toward 00-01Z.

   ..Kerr.. 01/01/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32428335 33748288 34048207 33938091 33448108 32638223
               32518296 32428335