Mesoscale Discussion 1131
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...far western Nebraska and South
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072050Z - 072215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible across eastern Wyoming
   into far western South Dakota and Nebraska, with localized damaging
   wind gusts or hail.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows very hot conditions from WY into
   western NE with upper 90s to lower 100s. The low-level lapse rate
   plume is currently spreading northeast across a cooler but more
   moist air mass toward the Black Hills, where MLCAPE of 1000-1500
   J/kg exists. Thermodynamic profiles suggest mainly high-based
   activity, but a supercell is possible as wind profiles increase with
   the approaching shortwave trough. The steep low-level lapse rates
   suggest strong to severe wind gusts may occur, while cellular storm
   model maximizes hail potential. A watch may be needed depending on
   expected storm coverage over the next couple hours.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43370275 42960261 42170256 41860276 41660308 41710354
               41850375 42100389 42540420 42870461 43450518 43940582
               44380687 44790686 44980608 45050484 44920403 44670352
               44050302 43370275