Mesoscale Discussion 0195
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0537 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

   Areas affected...western north-central TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

   Valid 182237Z - 190030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

   SUMMARY...Discrete supercell development being monitored.  Large to
   very large hail is the initial risk.  Tornado potential will likely
   increase during the 23-01z (7pm-9pm CDT) period.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows the initial development stages of
   supercells beginning to form near the I-20 corridor near Abilene. 
   Surface analysis indicates temperatures are in the upper 70s F with
   dewpoints in the mid 60s.  RAP forecast soundings show around 2000
   J/kg MLCAPE in the warm sector downstream of the developing storms. 
   The RAP hodographs show veering and strengthening flow with height
   with little weakness.  The low-level portion of the hodographs are
   forecast to enlarge further during the next 1-3 hours (0-1km SRH
   increasing from 100 to 250 m2/s2) which will likely translate to
   low-level mesocyclone intensification and a subsequent increase in
   tornado potential during this timeframe.

   ..Smith.. 03/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32789994 33419941 33419877 32969840 32219905 32439984
               32789994