Mesoscale Discussion 2236
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

   Areas affected...southwest MO into northwest AR and far southeast OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 707...

   Valid 290045Z - 290215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 707 continues.

   SUMMARY...Overall severe threat is expected to quickly diminish over
   the next hour or so. A downstream watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Sporadic, weak circulations have been noted over the
   past hour with the QLCS over southwest MO.  The most recent
   circulation over eastern Jasper into Dade Counties has been the
   strongest of the evening, but has mostly remained broad/weak through
   the lowest 2-3 elevation scans from the KSGF 88-D. The 00z RAOB from
   SGF indicates negligible surfaced-based instability with strong
   CINH, indicating the line is likely elevated. Poor lapse rates also
   are likely limiting further organization/intensity despite
   impressive vertical speed/directional shear. Downstream conditions
   are not expected to improve, thus a new watch is not expected
   downstream of Tornado Watch 707. Some weak areas of rotation could
   develop periodically given strong 0-3 km SRH, but elevated nature of
   convection will limit severe potential going forward the remainder
   of the evening.

   ..Leitman.. 12/29/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   38009435 38429393 38429329 38069272 37369240 36329261
               35189332 33589424 33749482 33919505 35419482 37399438
               38009435