Mesoscale Discussion 2226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2019

   Areas affected...Central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172004Z - 172200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few isolated, discrete storms have formed near Orlando.
   Strong/damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail are the
   primary threats. Low-level rotation is possible, but the tornado
   threat should remain low. Additional storms will approach from the
   west later this evening with a threat for strong wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent has increased across central Florida
   in response to a large scale trough sagging southward from the
   Midwest. With Low 80s F temperatures and low to mid 70s F dewpoints,
   boundary-layer destabilization has been sufficient ahead of and
   approaching cold front to support the development of isolated
   thunderstorms in the Orlando vicinity. With around 2500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of effective shear, these discrete storms will
   be capable of damaging wind gusts as well as marginally severe hail.
   Surface flow ahead of the front has steadily veered throughout the
   day, though 0-1 km SRH of per KJAX VWP data and objective
   mesoanalysis suggest some weak low-level rotation is possible
   particularly with these isolated/discrete storms. There is
   uncertainty with how many more storms will form ahead of the front
   as forcing for ascent is not overly strong. Furthermore, this
   activity will likely move offshore in a few hours.

   Later in the afternoon and early evening, storms will approach the
   western coast between 7-9 PM EST. With MLCAPE likely decreasing with
   loss of daytime heating, the severity of these storms is more
   questionable. Should activity maintain intensity, a few strong wind
   gusts would be the most probable hazard.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 12/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28848288 29488225 29708154 29258079 28418049 27768050
               27258148 27038214 27098264 27618299 28378306 28848288