Mesoscale Discussion 2179
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi and far southern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302031Z - 302130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective cores across north-central Mississippi will
   pose an isolated hail/wind risk through the afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite mosaic indicate strong to
   marginally severe convection migrating quickly into the discussion
   area at this time.  These storms are in a marginally buoyant
   environment (around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE), though deep shear exceeding
   60-70 knots is likely contributing to storm organization and
   rotation aloft.  Point forecast soundings in this region suggest
   that storms may be slightly elevated, with boundary layer
   temperatures/dewpoints a bit too cool to support ingest of
   surface-based parcels.  This may change over time however, as breaks
   in cloud cover across western and central Mississippi along with
   strong low-level advection contributes to modest destabilization
   over the course of the afternoon.  Isolated hail and wind are most
   likely with stronger cells in the near term, with a brief tornado
   risk increasing later as upstream convection moves northeast and
   low-level destabilization continues.  Based on the current scenario,
   the need for a WW issuance is not clear, though convective trends
   are being monitored.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 11/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34989070 35208956 35208835 34718809 34108860 33848986
               33809089 34099132 34609110 34989070