Mesoscale Discussion 2170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 271130Z - 271530Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates occasionally exceeding an inch per hour are
   expected over portions of eastern Upper Michigan

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows moderate to heavy snowfall
   ongoing from eastern Minnesota eastward across parts of northern and
   western Wisconsin, and into western Upper Michigan -- i.e. within
   previously issued SWOMCD #2168, which remains in effect at this
   time.

   Radar also shows heavy precipitation spreading northward across the
   lower Peninsula of Michigan and Lake Michigan, and into eastern
   Upper Michigan, and adjacent Lake Superior.  This precipitation is
   occurring within an area of strong QG ascent, ahead of an upper low
   now centered near the Illinois/Wisconsin border, and moving quickly
   east-northeastward.

   Temperatures remain marginal across the MCD area, but temperatures
   have fallen by a few degrees at several observing sites over the
   past 1 to 2 hours, with a subsequent changeover from rain to snow
   observed.  Upon examination, it appears that melting-induced cooling
   is contributing to surface temperature fluctuations, as a few sites
   have shown 2-3 degree decreases in temperature -- and a changeover
   to from rain to snow -- as heavier precipitation bands move atop
   these sites.  A couple of degrees of subsequent warming -- and a
   changeover back to rain -- has then been observed at a couple of
   sites, as precipitation rates decrease and melting-induced cooling
   diminishes locally.  

   Overall, with widespread/heavy precipitation spreading toward the
   region, in conjunction with strong large-scale ascent, expect
   sufficient cooling to be maintained across the discussion area to
   support areas of moderate to heavy snow -- exceeding 1" per hour
   rates at times.  The snowfall will continue for the next few hours,
   before a dry slot overspreads the area from the southwest.

   ..Goss.. 11/27/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

   LAT...LON   46258327 46738378 46938524 46728649 45918699 45688689
               45758566 45848499 45758355 45888325 46258327