Mesoscale Discussion 2125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of east central/northeast Alabama into
   northwestern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301942Z - 302145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may continue to develop across parts
   of northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia through 4-6 PM EDT. 
   Some of these could impact at least parts of the Greater Atlanta
   metropolitan area, and be accompanied by some risk for locally
   damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low is in the process of deepening while
   slowly migrating northeastward into/through middle Tennessee, with a
   moderate to strong southerly 850 mb jet axis to its east.  This
   appears to include speeds on the order of 35-45+ kt as far south as
   the central Alabama/Georgia border vicinity, which is contributing
   to large low-level shear within the warm sector, as well as along an
   effective warm frontal zone across parts of northeastern Alabama
   into northwestern Georgia.

   Two hourly surface pressure falls on the order of 2-4 mb have become
   evident in 19Z surface analysis across this general region,
   particularly just ahead of an area of sustained convection and
   embedded thunderstorms now spreading east of the Gadsen and Anniston
   AL vicinities.  This appears to be coinciding with at least weak
   boundary layer destabilization (up to 500 J/kg), which could support
   further intensification of the convection during the next few hours.

   As activity spreads into parts of northwest Georgia, it appears that
   the environment may become increasingly conducive to organized
   thunderstorms.  This could include a supercell structure or two,
   perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for a tornado, in addition
   to locally damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   34078550 34248479 33938415 33518410 33258462 33258528
               33498537 34078550