Mesoscale Discussion 2112
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019

   Areas affected...portions of north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241943Z - 242115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storm may produce marginally severe hail this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have quickly developed this afternoon in
   the vicinity of a cold front currently arcing from northeast TX
   through the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and central TX. These storms
   have quickly become undercut by the cold front, limiting strong wind
   potential as they are no longer surface-based. However, weak MUCAPE
   (less than 1000 J/kg), modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and
   strong deep-layer westerly flow should allow for a few strong cells
   capable of hail. In the absence of stronger instability and more
   favorable lapse rates, hail should generally remain less than 1
   inch. Recently hail up to 0.88 inches was reported in Comanche
   County OK. Current cells in Clay, Montague and Denton Counties in
   north TX are of similar intensity/character to the cell that
   produced the aforementioned penny-size hail in OK and this seems
   like an appropriate upper-limit for environmental conditions this
   afternoon. Of note, long, straight hodographs above 1-2 km is
   supporting splitting cells. So far, the left split storms appear to
   have the greatest hail potential based on radar presentation over
   the last hour.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 10/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31779922 32119919 33169855 33589802 33719766 33679685
               33489638 33209620 32939620 32529625 32179636 31759701
               31539777 31509840 31659898 31779922