Mesoscale Discussion 2099
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

   Areas affected...southeast MO...southern IL...far western KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 210654Z - 210900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...An additional weather watch will likely be needed between
   3-4am CDT as the northern portion of a squall line quickly moves
   eastward across southern MO and approaches the MS River.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an extensive south-southwest to
   north-northeast oriented squall line from southwest MO into central
   TX.  The airmass over the mid MS and lower OH Valleys is gradually
   destabilizing with a warm front analyzed in the vicinity of
   developing convection from near POF to 20 mi east of DYR.  Surface
   dewpoints south of the the warm front are in the lower 60s degrees F
   with mid-upper 50s north of the boundary.  Weak buoyancy but strong
   shear and large-scale forcing for ascent will support a continued
   east progression of the squall line into southeast MO and the lower
   OH Valley during the late overnight/early morning.  Damaging gusts
   appear to be the primary threat but an embedded mesovortex or two
   may yield a focused corridor for damaging gusts or brief/weak
   tornado.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 10/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37919130 38198992 38158874 37608840 36568901 36549113
               36599107 37919130