Mesoscale Discussion 2082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast SC...Southeast NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200617Z - 200815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for a tornado or two will gradually increase
   through the overnight.

   DISCUSSION...At 06Z, the remnant circulation of Nestor is
   approaching southern SC from east-central GA. A warm front extends
   northeastward into northeast SC and areas just offshore of coastal
   NC. The LTX VWP, which is sampling the wind profile just north of
   the warm front, shows an enlarged low-level hodograph, with 0-1 km
   SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. 

   Lightning activity has recently increased offshore with cellular
   convection near and just north of the warm front. Very limited
   surface-based buoyancy has thus far limited the tornado threat, but
   gradual airmass modification as the warm front advances slowly
   northward will eventually support the potential for a tornado or two
   across coastal northeast SC/southeast NC. 

   At this time, buoyancy sufficient for a tornado threat is not
   expected to advance very far inland, with the greatest potential
   expected to remain across coastal regions and offshore, where
   cellular convection may at least briefly overlap with the more
   favorable tornado environment. Given the relatively limited
   magnitude and spatial extent of the threat, watch issuance is
   considered unlikely at this time.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 10/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33697932 34287852 34637796 34797754 34397663 33967719
               33787760 33647792 33487852 33447889 33447925 33697932