Mesoscale Discussion 2072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

   Areas affected...West-central Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182315Z - 190145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage and tornado threat is expected to
   develop over the next couple of hours across the west-central
   Florida Peninsula. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...The National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Nestor
   in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of Nestor is forecast
   to move northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle tonight.
   Rainbands extend eastward away from the center covering much of the
   eastern Gulf of Mexico with the eastern most bands located near the
   western coast of Florida. Within that rainband, several
   semi-discrete cells are ongoing with the most notable cells located
   about 30 statute miles to the west of Tampa Bay. These storms are
   located near a warm front and are along the eastern edge of moderate
   instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE values from 1000 to 2000
   J/kg. In addition, the Tampa Bay WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near
   55 kt and 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This
   environment should enable the stronger cells to rotate and obtain
   supercell characteristics. Some of these cells are expected to move
   into the coastal areas. These cells should have a marginal wind
   damage and tornado threat. However, there is also a chance that most
   of the cells will remain offshore. For this reason, watch issuance
   appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Broyles.. 10/18/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27048244 27218260 27488276 27828282 28118276 28248256
               28238219 28198191 28128139 27968117 27638119 27418147
               27068212 27048244