Mesoscale Discussion 2065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0516 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

   Areas affected...much of north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102216Z - 110045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this evening along the cold
   front. Isolated severe hail or wind is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery currently shows a capped CU field over
   much of northern TX ahead of the cold front which is slowly moving
   south across northwest TX. However, latest imagery shows deeper
   towers near the front where temperatures are above 90 F. Ample
   moisture with PW values of 1.50-1.75" exists along I-35, with MLCAPE
   averaging close to 2000 J/kg within the instability axis.

   While capping is inhibiting storms currently, the front will likely
   become sufficient to break the cap this evening. East-west oriented
   deep-layer shear appears to be at a sufficient angle to the boundary
   to allow for a few storms to remain near the front as it progresses
   east/southeast. Effective SRH near 200 m2/s2, as well as elongating
   hodographs with height suggest an isolated supercell is possible
   with hail the primary threat. Otherwise, storms may produce locally
   strong to severe wind gusts. If it becomes clear storm coverage will
   become sufficient, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/10/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31079798 31089806 31489889 31799915 32149900 32629874
               33099794 33509740 33919579 33859546 33449532 32319566
               31519617 30969685 30909731 31079798