Mesoscale Discussion 2043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

   Areas affected...northwest Iowa...central and southern Minnesota
   through far western Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302155Z - 010000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms might develop early this evening from
   northwest Iowa into south central central Minnesota and spread east
   into far western Wisconsin. Should storms develop, they will pose
   some risk for a few instances of damaging wind and large hail. A
   couple of limiting factors lowers confidence in overall severe
   threat. Therefore, any ww issuance will ultimately depend on
   convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening a cold front extends from a surface
   low in west central MN southwest through southwestern WI and
   northwest IA. A warm front extends from the low through east central
   MN into northwest WI. The warm sector ahead of the cold front is
   very moist (70 F dewpoints) and moderately unstable with 2000-2500
   J/kg MLCAPE. However, WV imagery shows a plume of very dry mid-level
   air with warm temperatures in the 700-500 mb layer and with a
   capping inversion around 750 mb. Deeper forcing for ascent with an
   ejecting shortwave trough will remain well to the west in the
   post-frontal regime across ND. Visible satellite imagery shows a
   band of towering cumulus increasing along the length of the front
   from central MN into northwest IA. However, given the potential
   limiting factors including mid-level dry air entrainment, storm
   coverage and could remain very isolated. Nevertheless, the favorable
   kinematic environment with up to 50 kt effective bulk shear along
   with moderate instability may support some risk for large hail and
   damaging wind will exist with any sustained updrafts.

   ..Dial/Guyer.. 09/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42929583 44519489 45589442 45999350 45519233 44629254
               43239452 42929583