Mesoscale Discussion 2021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0717 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

   Areas affected...North-Central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260017Z - 260215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are possible across
   north-central OK during the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and visible satellite imagery reveals
   several rapidly developing thunderstorms across Major and Garfield
   Counties in north-central OK. This activity appears to have
   initiated amidst the persistent convergence along a residual outflow
   boundary. This convergence helped overcome the convective inhibition
   brought on by warm low/mid-level temperatures (i.e. between 850-700
   mb). Expectation is for these storms to persist for the next hour or
   so, but they will likely struggle to maintain strength after that
   time frame given the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and
   increasing convective inhibition. 

   Ample low-level moisture is supporting strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE
   over 2500 J/kg) and intense updrafts capable of water loading.
   Consequently, the strong wet downbursts capable of damaging wind
   gusts are possible. Isolated hail could also occur. Additionally,
   veering low-level wind profile and ambient vorticity near the
   surface boundary could support a brief tornado. Overall, any severe
   threat is expected to remain isolated and a watch is not currently
   anticipated, but convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Goss.. 09/26/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36389867 36759824 36929698 36479678 36049709 36109848
               36389867