Mesoscale Discussion 2010
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northeastern KS...southeastern NE...and
   far northwestern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 242230Z - 242330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms forming in northeastern Kansas may become severe
   this evening, posing at least an isolated threat for large hail and
   damaging winds. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to increase in coverage in a zone of
   low-level convergence along a pre-frontal trough/dryline feature
   across north-central/northeastern KS. The environment across this
   region and into southeastern NE is favorable for robust convection,
   with moderate to strong instability present along with 35-45 of
   effective bulk shear. Supercells posing at least an isolated threat
   for large hail appear probable, and strong to damaging downdraft
   winds may also occur. Even though overall storm coverage may remain
   somewhat isolated between ongoing convection across eastern
   NE/western IA and southern KS, the favorable thermodynamic and
   kinematic environment present ahead of the developing storms in
   north-central/northeastern KS suggests that Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance will likely be needed soon.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39189847 41009689 40539581 40549498 38579661 38599729
               38799795 39189847