Mesoscale Discussion 2007
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska southeastward to portions of
   southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241932Z - 242100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...One or more clusters of strong to severe storms are likely
   this afternoon and evening from southeast Nebraska into southwest
   Kansas. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop near Dodge City in the
   last 30 minutes. 19Z mesoanalysis shows CINH has eroded across this
   vicinity with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Expect storm coverage
   to increase through the afternoon along the pseudo front/dryline
   which goes from near KDDC to near KODX as a shortwave trough moves
   toward the area. Effective shear around 40 to 45 knots should
   support supercell storm mode initially before eventual upscale
   growth into a MCS/cluster. Moderately steep (7.5 to 8 C/km per RAP
   mesoanalysis) mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for both
   large hail and damaging winds. A watch will likely be needed, but it
   is unclear at this time if more widespread strong to severe storms
   are imminent or if it will take another hour or two once the
   mid-level shortwave trough moves closer.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 09/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37240099 37770038 38499947 39009868 39169784 39269713
               39209634 38949607 38359670 37409820 37039944 36990043
               36980098 37240099