Mesoscale Discussion 1983
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

   Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...western and northern
   Iowa...southeastern Minnesota...and parts of western Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190328Z - 190530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop across the MCD
   area, with potential that a few instances of hail -- and possibly
   wind gusts -- approach severe levels.  A WW is not anticipated, due
   to the expected local/limited risk.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows thunderstorms developing over
   the eastern Nebraska vicinity, near and to the cool side of a
   surface cold front, roughly in line with CAM forecasts across this
   region.  The storms are developing atop a stabilizing -- and for the
   most part post-frontal -- boundary layer, which should serve to
   limit severe potential.  

   With that said, steep lapse rates aloft above the decoupling
   boundary layer -- as sampled by area 00Z RAOBs -- are contributing
   to substantial elevated CAPE.  This will permit a few
   stronger/possibly rotating updrafts to evolve from time to time,
   aided by marginally sufficient shear through the cloud-bearing
   layer.  With storms which can develop nearer the front, a locally
   stronger wind gust or two may occur.  However, hail approaching or
   exceeding severe levels will remain the greater risk with the most
   robust storms.  At this time, risk is expected to remain
   sufficiently limited such that WW issuance is likely to remain
   unnecessary.  However, we will continue to monitor storm evolution,
   for signs of robust development in close proximity to the advancing
   front, which would -- given greater risk for wind in such a scenario
   -- warrant greater concern with respect to WW necessity.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 09/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   41259780 41939762 44559420 45489252 44889140 43299183
               40939554 40669715 41259780