Mesoscale Discussion 1975
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern West Virginia...far western
   Virginia...Maryland Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141746Z - 141945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the next
   few hours. Damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms. A WW
   issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Owing to recent diurnal heating, towering cumulus have
   recently become established across parts of the central Appalachians
   ahead of an approaching cold front. Continued heating within breaks
   of the low-level stratus will likely result in modest buoyancy, with
   MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in several locales. While more
   appreciable flow aloft will glance the region to the north, modest
   low and mid-level flow will likely contribute to marginal deep-layer
   and low-level speed shear to promote some organization with the more
   intense updrafts over the next few hours. In turn, the more
   sustained storms may produce a few damaging gusts, particularly in
   areas of higher terrain. Nonetheless, severe gusts are expected to
   be rather sparse in nature, precluding a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 09/14/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38308116 39388015 39777940 39577828 39217795 38477830
               37987921 37798018 37968087 38308116