Mesoscale Discussion 1929
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0938 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019

   Areas affected...northern/central/eastern Minnesota...northwest
   Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051438Z - 051645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe hail from elevated storms is possible across
   northern/central/eastern portions of Minnesota into northwest
   Wisconsin this morning. A watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is tracking across the
   northern Plains and will continue moving southeast into the Great
   Lakes today. Forcing for ascent along/ahead of this shortwave trough
   is helping to initiate elevated thunderstorms across portions of
   north-central/eastern Minnesota. Severe hail is possible from these
   storms with steep mid-level lapse rates and ample bulk shear across
   the area. Sub-severe hail has been reported this morning out of
   these storms and updrafts are strengthening west of Duluth. 70+ dBZ
   above 24,000 ft. and 1.5"+ MRMS MESH are evident in one of the cores
   per KDLH radar. These storms should continue tracking southeast this
   morning and maintain severe hail potential. Given the isolated hail
   threat, a watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 09/05/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47289228 47009200 46129180 45139225 44769306 44819414
               45669523 46669541 47249464 47629346 47549271 47289228