Mesoscale Discussion 1927
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019

   Areas affected...NC Cape Fear vicinity

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 635...

   Valid 051000Z - 051100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 635 continues.

   SUMMARY...Training supercells with tornado potential maximized near
   and north of Cape Fear for the next hour.  Experimental tornado data
   showing peak wind speeds 100-130mph range for the strongest
   tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows two outer bands on the northern
   envelope of Hurricane Dorian located near the border of the SC/NC
   coast.  The maritime warm front has infiltrated the immediate
   coastal counties with observed surface conditions showing
   temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees F and middle-upper
   70s dewpoints.  This is resulting in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per RAP
   forecast soundings.  Additionally, the KLTX VAD is showing around
   300 m2/s^2 0-1km SRH when accounting for observed storm motion.  A
   recently tornadic circulation (TDS signature) over Brunswick County,
   NC likely possessed peak wind speeds between 100-130mph according to
   experimental tornado data.  It seems plausible additional supercell
   tornadoes will probably develop or move onshore during the next 1-2
   hours as the outer band gradually shifts slowly north.

   ..Smith.. 09/05/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34237874 34337761 34127726 33897747 34057857 34237874