Mesoscale Discussion 1915
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast ND...West-Central MN...Far Northeast SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 022034Z - 022200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Strengthening MCS across central SD is expected to persist
   downstream in southeast ND, west-central MN, and far northeast SD. A
   downstream watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Current storm motion takes the ongoing MCS across
   central ND to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 before 22Z.
   Convective inhibition currently remains in place over the downstream
   environment across southeast ND, west-central MN, and far
   northeastern SD. However, increasing moisture advection and diurnal
   heating will contribute to an erosion of at least some of this
   inhibition. In addition to the weakening convective inhibition and
   building instability, the strong warm-air advection is expected to
   persist. All of these factors combined with the organized character
   of the ongoing MCS suggest the severe threat will continue
   downstream. Some acceleration of the MCS is also possible along with
   higher probability for strong wind gusts at the surface. A
   downstream watch will likely be needed to cover the resulting severe
   weather threat.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/02/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47309893 47729790 46999509 45629493 45419668 46019960
               47309893