Mesoscale Discussion 1905
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Indiana...northern
   Kentucky...Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011903Z - 012100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may continue to develop and
   overspread the region through 6-7 PM EDT, posing at least some risk
   for severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.  In general,
   this risk appears sufficiently marginal in nature that a severe
   weather watch will not be needed.  However, trends will continue to
   be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Weak lower/mid tropospheric (generally within the
   850-500 mb layer) troughing is gradually progressing eastward
   through the lower Ohio Valley.  Within the larger-scale cyclonic
   flow, a convectively generated or enhanced cyclonic vorticity center
   is now northeast of Indianapolis, and appears likely to continue
   northeastward across northwest Ohio, into southwestern portions of
   the Lake Erie by 22-23Z.  This is accompanied by a belt of enhanced
   westerly flow (30-50 kt) to its immediate south, which may be
   contributing to modest deep layer shear as far south as the Ohio
   River, where mixed-layer CAPE appears to be increasing to 1000-2000
   J/kg in response to daytime heating.

   Much of the lower Ohio Valley remains under the influence of
   larger-scale surface ridging, extending to the west of a high center
   near the New England coast.  However, some weakening has been
   occurring in response to the upper impulse, and there appears a zone
   of enhanced surface confluence to the south of the MCV, across
   southern Indiana into southwest Ohio.  This has become a focus for
   developing thunderstorm activity, which probably will be sustained,
   with further intensification and upscale growth possible during the
   next few hours.  Some of this activity may pose a risk for
   marginally severe hail, at least initially, with perhaps an increase
   in potential for strong surface gusts approaching or briefly
   exceeding severe limits a bit more prominent thereafter, into early
   evening, across parts of central into eastern Ohio.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 09/01/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   40958254 41018188 40898110 40458108 39948157 38508392
               38458629 39898491 40208441 40598334 40958254