Mesoscale Discussion 1902
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0313 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

   Areas affected...the I-25 corridor and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302013Z - 302245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing over the Front Range and eastern
   slopes of the southern Rockies into northern New Mexico. These
   storms will likely slowly move to the east in the next few hours
   with severe hail and wind possible.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple embedded disturbances are evident in
   west/northwest flow aloft over the central/northern Rockies and
   vicinity via water vapor imagery. A surface front that was pushed up
   to the eastern slopes of the Rockies will continue to slowly retreat
   with the passage of upper-level disturbances aloft and insolation
   continuing across the High Plains. Upslope, east/southeast flow will
   continue and with the aforementioned insolation, terrain
   circulations will become deep enough to establish surface-based
   convection. Storms may initially be elevated, but should become
   surface-based this afternoon/evening.

   Current MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg per mesoanalysis, but this will
   increase as insolation and moist advection via east/southeast
   low-level flow continue and likely reach 1000-1500 J/kg by late
   afternoon/early evening. Effective bulk shear will also increase as
   mid-level flow strengthens with forecast guidance indicating 25-40
   knots. As a result, severe hail and wind will be possible with
   isolated to scattered storms developing along the I-25 corridor. A
   watch issuance is unlikely at this time, but convective trends will
   be monitored.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35520520 36070512 37080504 39780529 40840547 41270554
               41480542 41500457 41040378 39750338 37910346 36610363
               35930386 35510412 35320436 35160465 35130501 35320513
               35520520