Mesoscale Discussion 1891
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0715 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

   Areas affected...Far southern Nebraska into most of Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 300015Z - 300215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Semi-discrete storms will continue to grow upscale into an
   MCS through the evening hours across a large portion of Kansas with
   mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. The severe threat will
   likely continue overnight, both with ongoing storms, and with new
   convection that is expected to initiate along a near stationary
   front in southern Nebraska. A downstream issuance of a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued to account for these
   scenarios.

   DISCUSSION...A mature supercell thunderstorm has recently begun to
   grow upscale into a small bowing complex across the northwest
   KS/southwest NE border, with weaker, shorter-lived cells progressing
   south-southeastward across western KS. The developing MCS is moving
   into a strongly unstable environment (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE), with
   35+ knots of effective bulk shear in place, supportive of continued
   severe potential, including damaging wind gusts and large hail.

   The boundary layer will gradually decouple with the loss of daytime
   heating. Nonetheless, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to develop and
   intensify across the central Plains over the next few hours. Ample
   low-level convergence along the terminus of the LLJ (particularly in
   proximity to a near-stationary west-east orient baroclinic boundary
   located just north of the KS/NE border) is expected to foster
   additional convective development ahead of the ongoing, mature
   convection later this evening. Here, new storms will mature in a
   modestly sheared environment, with ample elevated buoyancy available
   to support a continued damaging wind and large hail threat.  

   Given the likelihood of convective development/expansion of
   potential severe coverage later this evening, a Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance downstream of WW 0626 will likely be needed soon.

   ..Squitieri/Goss.. 08/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...
   GLD...

   LAT...LON   39059498 37619503 37279556 37309695 37419807 37619893
               37940030 38010154 38180179 38540188 39050193 39920161
               40220143 40430078 40569923 40579756 40439625 40239558
               39669529 39059498