Mesoscale Discussion 1876
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

   Areas affected...Far Southeast MO/MO Boothill...Northeast AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 270544Z - 270715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective line moving through southeast MO may continue
   to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts as it continues into far
   southeast MO/northeast AR. Trends are being monitored for possible
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown an increase in forward
   speed with the ongoing convective line across southeast MO. Recent
   storm motion is southeastward at 30-35 kt. This storm motion takes
   the line to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625 within the
   next 30 minutes (i.e. by 06Z). 

   Downstream air mass across southeast MO/MO Boothill here is
   characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper
   60s, and low buoyancy. However, downstream air mass across northeast
   AR is more favorable, with temperatures in the upper 70s, dewpoints
   in the mid 70s, and moderate instability. Convective inhibition
   exists but the organized character to the ongoing line and strong
   cold pool should be able to overcome much of this inhibition. As a
   result, a damaging wind threat may persist across northeast
   AR/southeast MO and a watch will be considered soon to cover this
   threat.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/27/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36449243 37059150 37009045 36598987 35998995 35569032
               35049118 35199246 36449243