Mesoscale Discussion 1869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

   Areas affected...northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 262037Z - 262130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may eventually develop into northern AR,
   posing a risk for isolated damaging wind and large hail. Trends are
   being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Storms over southern MO have trended more discrete with
   a lone storm with supercell structures approaching Taney county. The
   atmosphere over northern AR is moderately to strongly unstable and
   weakly capped with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though only one severe
   storm is currently in progress, additional storms could develop
   farther west along trailing outflow boundary. Southeasterly near
   surface winds veering to northwesterly, with up to 40 kt effective
   bulk shear will support organized storm structures as storms cross
   into northern AR.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 08/26/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36449315 36409227 35809146 35239152 34959272 35549320
               36009368 36379353 36449315