Mesoscale Discussion 1862
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern MO into west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260706Z - 260900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado will remain possible in the near
   term. Watch issuance is not expected at this time as the overall
   threat appears very isolated.

   DISCUSSION...A small line of storms has recently strengthened across
   east-central MO in association with a remnant MCV from prior
   convection located over far west-central IL at 07Z. The VWP from
   KLSX does show a gradually veering wind profile in the 0-3 km AGL
   layer. Two weak circulations have been observed so far embedded
   within the line. The presence of around 125-200 m2/s2 of effective
   bulk shear suggests that transient circulations capable of producing
   a brief/weak tornado may continue for the next couple of hours.
   However, both modest instability and weak effective bulk shear will
   likely tend to limit a more organized severe threat across this
   region through the early morning hours. Therefore, watch issuance is
   not anticipated at this time.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 08/26/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38369214 38909139 39429094 39739071 39789040 39639014
               39279011 39029017 38559041 38309109 38319166 38369214