Mesoscale Discussion 1851
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1045 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

   Areas affected...Northwest/north-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 250345Z - 250545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind risk will exist across
   northwest Oklahoma late this evening, although the primary severe
   potential may not occur until overnight across northern Oklahoma. A
   watch issuance is uncertain in the short term, but one could be
   needed late tonight/overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has shown recent signs of
   intensification near and just north of the Kansas/Oklahoma state
   line, roughly 50 miles south of Dodge City or 50 miles northwest of
   Woodward, OK as of 1030 PM CDT. This activity is occurring near the
   anvil edge of other storms farther north across southwest Kansas,
   with all of this activity influenced by the southern edge of a
   southeastward-moving shortwave trough across western Kansas.
   Low-level inhibition has increased this evening across northwest
   Oklahoma as the boundary layer has cooled, although a corridor of
   ample low-level moisture/instability persists. It is possible that
   the storms moving into northwest Oklahoma further intensify/organize
   over the next hour or so, but at this time, it appears any related
   hail/wind risk may remain fairly localized. Short-term convective
   trends will continue to be monitored, but a relatively higher severe
   potential may not occur across a broader part of northern Oklahoma
   until the overnight hours as an MCS moves south-southeastward across
   central Kansas.

   ..Guyer.. 08/25/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36319991 36950006 37059981 36999793 36289753 36319991