Mesoscale Discussion 1803
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0707 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

   Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200007Z - 200130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of
   southern Illinois and vicinity with large hail and damaging wind
   gusts possible. A watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A hot, moist, and unstable airmass is across the mid
   Mississippi Valley with surface temperatures in the 90s F and
   dewpoints 70+ F. MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg has resulted and as
   convective temperatures have been breached, thunderstorms have
   developed this evening. While flow/shear are rather weak across the
   area, the large buoyancy will help compensate with marginally large
   hail possible. Water-loaded downdrafts coupled with steep low-level
   lapse rates may result in damaging wind gusts as well. Storms will
   likely weaken after sunset and given the lack of organization/shear,
   the severe threat should remain isolated and marginal.

   ..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38479044 38919030 39408965 39628902 39748826 39638771
               39358726 38748743 38228813 37898920 37778986 38219038
               38479044