Mesoscale Discussion 1730
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0522 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

   Areas affected...central and southwest KS...far east-central CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 132222Z - 132345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will probably develop south-southeastward into
   west-central and southwest KS this evening.  Severe gusts (60-75mph)
   and isolated large hail are the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of intense storm clusters
   near the Burlington, CO/Goodland KS vicinity and another farther
   northeast in between Colby, KS and McCook, NE.  A considerable
   amount of outflow associated with the storms is becoming more
   spatially extensive with time.  Surface analysis indicates
   temperatures in the upper 80s with middle 60s degrees F dewpoints
   south of the ongoing storms. 
    
   Recent storm-scale model guidance suggests a continuation of storms
   through the evening as this activity moves to the south-southeast. 
   The eastern periphery of steeper 700-500mb lapse rates (7.5 degrees
   C/km) is located over western KS with 8-9 degree C/km 0-3km lapse
   rates.  Despite some slow cooling early this evening, mature cold
   pools and regenerative development will probably lead to storms
   moving towards the Garden City/Dodge City vicinity later this
   evening.  The hail risk may focus over west-central KS before
   additional linear upscale growth favors mostly a risk for severe
   gusts.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 08/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38620270 39129909 38469849 37539902 37109983 37110131
               38620270