Mesoscale Discussion 1726
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

   Areas affected...Central/Southern MN...Far West-Central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131928Z - 132030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind
   gusts are possible over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low just southeast of
   FAR in far west-central MN. A cold front extends southward from this
   low into southwest MN and then back southwestward into SD. A warm
   front also extends southeastward from this low into central WI.
   Increasing agitated cumulus exist within the warm sector between
   these two surface boundaries, with some convection briefly deep
   enough to produce lightning. 

   Only modest surface convergence exists in this area, with much of
   the forcing for ascent provided by the approaching shortwave trough.
   Relatively warm low to mid-level temperatures have likely limiting
   updraft strength and persistence thus far. Strong diurnal heating
   and boundary-layer mixing will continue to reduce convective
   inhibition, increasing the potential for deeper, more persistent
   storms. Vertical shear is strong enough to support organized storm
   structures capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   44649514 45629532 46369483 46209319 45039223 44259238
               43659321 43879406 44649514