Mesoscale Discussion 1723
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

   Areas affected...Southern NE Panhandle/Southwest NE...Northeast
   CO...Far Northwest KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 131732Z - 131930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
   few hours. These storms could pose for all severe hazards and a
   watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations reveal a low across
   northeast CO with southeasterly upslope flow southeast of this low
   across southwest NE and northwest KS. Dewpoints are generally in the
   mid to upper 60s and mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000
   J/kg with little remaining MLCIN. So far, sustained convection has
   only developed within the storm over Garden County NE, but the
   expectation is for continued surface convergence and further air
   mass destabilization to result in increased thunderstorm coverage,
   mainly over the southern NE Panhandle and northeast CO. 

   This region is on the southern edge of the better flow aloft but
   given the southeasterly low-level flow, the modest mid-level
   westerly flow is still sufficient to produce effective bulk shear
   around 40 kt and a supercell wind profile. An initial discrete
   supercell mode is anticipated with upscale growth then possible as
   cold pool amalgamate. Very large hail is primary threat with the
   initially discrete storms. A tornado or two and strong wind gusts
   are also possible. The primary threat will then likely transition to
   strong wind gusts as storms become more linear and forward
   propagating.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40980365 41790337 41810208 41080135 39990105 39300234
               39770321 40980365