Mesoscale Discussion 1702
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019

   Areas affected...Southwest into central MT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569...

   Valid 112043Z - 112215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for primarily large hail and severe wind gusts
   will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and spread
   northeast into the remainder of WW 569, with some areas seeing
   multiple rounds of storms.

   DISCUSSION...Several discrete storms are ongoing across southwest MT
   at 2030Z. MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 35-45 kt
   will continue to support organized convection, including the
   potential for a few supercells. Large hail and locally severe wind
   gusts will the primary threat with any discrete cells through the
   afternoon, though a tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger
   supercell, especially across the southeast portion of WW 569 where
   greater instability is in place. Large-scale ascent ahead of the
   ejecting upper trough to the west may eventually support some
   upscale growth, which would raise the potential for somewhat more
   widespread severe wind with time. Additional redevelopment within
   the next 1-2 hours also remains possible upstream of the ongoing
   activity in advance of the trough, which would result in another
   round of potentially severe convection for areas that have already
   experienced strong thunderstorms.

   ..Dean.. 08/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   46041370 46271302 47171103 47750950 47570918 47010891
               45920957 45191017 45081115 44721170 44671274 45121335
               45731383 46041370