Mesoscale Discussion 1662
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019

   Areas affected...southern MO...northeast AR...western TN...northern
   MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071635Z - 071830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Renewed storm development along the gust front from an
   ongoing MCS is possible.  A severe thunderstorm watch is being
   considered.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an MCS moving southeast across the
   Ozarks with a well-defined gust front trailing westward into
   northeast OK and arcing northwestward into south-central KS.  An MCV
   is now being identified across west-central MO and this feature will
   continue to move to the southeast across the Ozarks early this
   afternoon.

   Temperatures are warming through the upper 80s over northeast AR
   into northern MS with surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s. 
   The 12z Little Rock raob showed 2300 J/kg MLCAPE with around 60kt
   north-northwesterly flow around 250mb.  The additional heating has
   resulted in around 3400 J/kg MLCAPE at Little Rock according to the
   latest RAP forecast sounding.  

   The latest expectation is for the ongoing MCS to continue southeast
   into northeast AR while intensifying over the next few hours.  The
   potential for damaging gusts will correspondingly increase with the
   storm intensification.  It is uncertain whether the swath for
   damaging gust potential is greatest with the storms moving southeast
   from Rolla, MO or if additional development further southwest
   occurs.  Regardless, convective trends will be monitored in the
   short term for a possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

   ..Smith.. 08/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37409168 35998908 34788860 34609002 36209314 37409168