Mesoscale Discussion 1656
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0819 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019

   Areas affected...Middle TN...South-central KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070119Z - 070245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible until around 02-03Z
   with ongoing thunderstorm complex, but a gradual weakening trend is
   expected with time. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Consolidation of earlier thunderstorms across KY has
   resulted in a forward-propagating cluster moving into middle TN.
   KOHX radar depicts surging outflow approaching the Nashville metro
   area, which will result in a short-term damaging wind risk between
   now and at least 02Z. 

   The 00Z BNA sounding was moderately unstable (MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg),
   though low-level flow was weak and deep-layer shear only marginally
   favorable for organized convection. With these factors in mind, a
   gradual weakening trend is expected with time as the boundary layer
   stabilizes this evening. However, some threat for damaging wind will
   likely continue until around the 02-03Z timeframe as the complex and
   associated cold pool continue southeastward across middle TN. Due to
   the relatively limited duration of the anticipated threat, watch
   issuance is not expected.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 08/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36408833 36528699 36878632 37148594 37338582 37288527
               36548507 36098532 35578589 35348677 35358746 35398785
               35558828 36088851 36408833