Mesoscale Discussion 1608
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

   Areas affected...lower Michigan vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291811Z - 292015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Local risk for gusty/damaging winds is apparent with
   isolated/sustained updrafts, but WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a disorganized band of showers
   and thunderstorms moving across lower Michigan and adjacent portions
   of Indiana at this time, ahead of the cold front now crossing Lake
   Michigan.  Ahead of the convective band, early afternoon heating
   through scattered cloud cover has permitted modest destabilization,
   with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now indicated.  

   With ample CAPE likely to fuel a continuation of convection as it
   spreads eastward across Lower Michigan and vicinity, occasionally
   stronger, embedded cells are expected, aided by moderate (25 to 35
   kt) unidirectional/southwesterly flow aloft.  With the flow
   contributing to quick storm motion, along with aiding updraft
   longevity, local instances of gusty winds and minor damage will
   persist through the afternoon hours.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 07/29/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43878233 42638235 41418341 41158462 41538554 42878524
               43868559 44468524 45498352 45348262 43878233