Mesoscale Discussion 1600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of southern New York into northern
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281919Z - 282115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop through the
   afternoon, with a few damaging wind gusts possible with the more
   organized storms. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW
   issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Deep-layer ascent associated with an upper level trough
   glancing from the north, coincident with diurnal boundary layer
   heating, has contributed to the recent thunderstorm development
   across southern NY into PA over the past couple of hours. The warm,
   moist boundary layer in place has resulted in modest buoyancy (up to
   1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Still, unidirectional tropospheric flow and
   little vertical speed shear suggests that storms will be loosely
   organized, with single cells and multicellular clusters being the
   predominant mode of convection. Given the relatively poor shear and
   mid-level lapse rates, marginally severe wind gusts appear to be the
   primary threat with these storms. The damaging wind threat is also
   expected to be isolated in nature, and a WW issuance is not
   expected.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42178009 42747893 43317888 43307689 43537620 42827490
               41887447 41647475 41367567 41317748 41437868 41897993
               42178009