Mesoscale Discussion 1596
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern upper Michigan and northern lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271703Z - 271900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms are possible across the region
   through 3-4 PM EDT, with at least some risk for severe hail and
   locally strong surface gusts.  It is not clear that a watch will be
   needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Recent initiation of thunderstorm activity
   south/southeast Traverse City may be in response to forcing for
   ascent within an area of somewhat enhanced low-level warm advection.
   However, boundary layer destabilization also appears well underway
   across much of northern lower Michigan, where mid/upper 60s surface
   dew points are contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000
   J/kg, in the presence of fairly steep and steepening lower/mid
   tropospheric lapse rates.  As the boundary layer destabilizes
   further, there appears potential for further thunderstorm
   intensification, in the presence of at least modestly sheared 30+ kt
   westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow.  Shear may become marginally
   sufficient to support supercell structure, and perhaps the evolution
   of an increasingly organized convective system, with at least some
   upscale growth possible as the mid-level trough axis overspreads the
   region through 19-20Z.  

   Additionally, lift associated with converging lake breezes appears
   to be providing support for sustained deepening convective
   development across eastern portions of the upper peninsula of
   Michigan.  Similar intensification and upscale convective growth
   appears possible as activity spreads eastward across the remainder
   of the peninsula during the next few hours.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/27/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

   LAT...LON   45318378 44978324 44308322 44198431 44228511 44418542
               44898509 45508464 45998494 46028593 46198578 46578477
               46408413 46078353 45908382 45928449 45318378