Mesoscale Discussion 1593
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0608 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin...Western
   Upper Michigan...Western Lake Superior

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 541...

   Valid 262308Z - 270115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 541
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for several more
   hours across Weather Watch 541. The severe threat may also impact
   areas to the southeast of the watch across eastern Minnesota and
   northern Wisconsin. Wind damage and hail will be the primary
   threats.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front
   extending southward from western Ontario into central Minnesota. A
   narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture exists just ahead of
   the front. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are near 70 F. In
   response, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE
   estimated in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Two clusters of strong to
   severe thunderstorms are present along the western edge of the
   stronger instability. The first is in the northern part of the watch
   with the second just to the south of the watch. The northern line of
   storms is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with an
   upper-level trough. The southern cluster of storms is being
   supported by the exit region of a northern Plains mid-level jet.
   Both areas have moderate deep-layer shear, evident on regional
   WSR-88D VWPS, which will support supercells with wind damage and
   hail. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out across parts of
   northern Wisconsin later this evening if the storms south of the
   current watch remain organized.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/26/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44689097 44649199 44729294 44919365 45379390 46699239
               47759162 47849032 47188872 45159004 44689097