Mesoscale Discussion 1515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

   Areas affected...northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181728Z - 182000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated storms capable of large hail are
   expected this afternoon. However, coverage of severe may not warrant
   a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently initiated over far northwest
   Wisconsin, in a zone of warm advection immediately behind a weak
   wave now moving across Upper Michigan and Lake Superior. This area
   should continue to favor scattered development despite cooler
   boundary layer temperatures as west/southwesterly 850 mb winds of
   20-30 kt persist. In addition, 700 mb temperatures remain relatively
   cool across the zone, and objective analysis indicates capping will
   remain minimal in this east-west zone. Lengthy hodographs will favor
   cells capable of hail, and a supercell or two may occur with
   effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/18/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   45819039 46009127 46199149 46399151 46589125 46749068
               47108920 47408840 47438796 47258760 47048703 46728658
               46348659 46018695 45788754 45718876 45819039