Mesoscale Discussion 1501
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171729Z - 172000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will move east-northeast off the Appalachians this
   afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds may occur and a
   severe thunderstorm watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching upper-level shortwave trough,
   storms started developing over the Appalachians late this morning
   and coverage is expected to increase this afternoon/evening as they
   move east-northeast. A hot, moist airmass is in place with surface
   temperatures in the 90s F and dewpoints into the 70s. As a result,
   MLCAPE has increased to 1000-2000 J/kg and will likely eclipse 3000
   J/kg in the Tidewater/Chesapeake Bay regions this afternoon. With
   rather weak shear, multicellular development is expected with
   outflow dominant storms likely. Some upscale growth is possible
   given the presence of the upper-level trough, 25 knot mid-level
   flow, and strong buoyancy in the area. This would locally enhance
   the threat for damaging winds, and steepening low-level lapse rates
   and anticipated outflow dominant storms will also likely result in
   strong wind gusts.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 07/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39137455 37967520 37357596 36867701 36777790 36877905
               36977990 37188023 37638055 38408021 39167970 39537911
               39677810 39677641 39657517 39627471 39247457 39137455