Mesoscale Discussion 1496
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1008 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern WY...western/central
   SD...and far southern ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...513...

   Valid 170308Z - 170445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512, 513
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase late this evening
   into tonight across parts of western/central SD within Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 512 and 513. Isolated large hail remains possible
   in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...Cell mergers have recently occurred across far
   northeastern WY into western SD. As a shortwave trough continues
   eastward over this region late this evening, a southerly low-level
   jet should gradually strengthen across the northern/central Plains
   in response. The potential exists for one or more bowing clusters to
   develop and spread eastward across western/central SD over the next
   couple of hours. The environment across this region should remain
   conducive for maintenance of severe storms, with MLCAPE of 1500-2500
   J/kg and 35-50 kt of effective bulk shear present at 03Z per
   mesoanalysis estimates. If storms gradually grow upscale as
   forecast, then damaging severe wind gusts would likely become the
   primary severe risk tonight. In the short term, isolated large hail
   also remains possible where storms are still discrete, mainly across
   parts of northwestern SD and far southern ND. Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 512/513 has been locally extended across parts of
   south-central into central SD to account for a recently intensifying
   small cluster of storms in southwestern SD.

   ..Gleason.. 07/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43030206 43660204 43790275 44130458 44410478 44950392
               45760390 46500228 46330093 45870028 44969988 44139954
               43459959 43039963 43030206