Mesoscale Discussion 1488
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

   Areas affected...southwest ND...western SD...northwestern NE
   Panhandle and eastern WY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161926Z - 162100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected late this afternoon into this
   evening. Damaging wind and large hail will be possible, and a watch
   is likely in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop
   over the higher terrain of southeast WY this afternoon.
   Southeasterly low level flow has maintained modest boundary layer
   moisture across eastern WY  and western portions of NE/SD/ND with
   dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s F, with much drier
   air over the higher terrain. Dewpoints increase with eastward extent
   into central ND/SD where some mid-60s F dewpoints were noted. Strong
   heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates has resulted in moderate
   instability with MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg in some areas.
   As storms move off of higher terrain across eastern WY, strong deep
   layer shear and long, straight hodographs will support supercells
   capable of large hail and damaging winds.

   A somewhat greater threat is expected to unfold across western SD.
   Storms from eastern WY may track northeast toward this area,
   organizing into a bowing segment capable of widespread damaging wind
   gusts. Additional development is also possible along the Black Hills
   and/or ont he south side of an MCV located near BIS as of 19z.
   Visible satellite imagery shows deepening CU field across southwest
   ND and northwest SD where mid 60s F dewpoints have aided in the
   strongest destabilization across the region. Hi-res guidance
   continues to indicate this as another initiation point late this
   afternoon or evening. Given the expected increase in storm coverage
   and intensity over the next couple of hours, a watch will likely be
   needed by 21z.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/16/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45080490 46990411 47290314 47290183 47010115 46580085
               45790069 44900087 43450211 41690398 41240468 41170539
               41570596 42060638 42790654 43700640 44480543 45080490