Mesoscale Discussion 1477
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

   Areas affected...southeast MN into central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151857Z - 152030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms could produce hail and locally
   strong wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing across
   west-central WI this afternoon in an area of strong instability
   downstream from an MCV currently over southeast MN. These storms may
   pose a marginal risk for hail approaching 1-inch in diameter and
   locally strong wind gusts. However, weak effective shear will limit
   overall organization of any storm clusters that develop.
   Additionally, an area of low to midlevel dry air has been noted on
   water vapor imagery to the north of the MCV and south of the
   southeastward-advancing cold front. This is further evident in
   visible satellite imagery, where little cloud cover is present from
   near AQP in southwest MN eastward to near RZN in western WI. This
   may be suppressing convective potential across central/southern MN
   and adjacent parts of WI in the short term, until stronger ascent
   arrives with the approach of the cold front and shortwave impulse.
   Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with ongoing convection,
   providing little confidence in overall evolution of potential severe
   threat across parts of southern MN into central WI through the
   afternoon. As such, trends will be monitored for possible watch
   issuance, but a watch does not appear necessary in the short-term.

   ..Leitman/Dial.. 07/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45359223 45629147 45749032 45408976 45068959 44678968
               44219074 43739229 43619304 43889343 44419334 45039277
               45359223