Mesoscale Discussion 1475
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0957 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

   Areas affected...northwest MN into parts of eastern ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151457Z - 151630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may produce marginal hail this
   morning. A watch is not expected with this initial activity, but
   could be necessary later today further east and south across MN.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this morning in a warm
   advection regime ahead of an upper shortwave impulse and surface
   cold front from eastern Manitoba into northwest MN. 12z regional
   RAOBs and mesoanalysis suggest these storms are likely elevated
   above the EML based around 850 mb. Nevertheless, steep midlevel
   lapse rates and MLCAPE values already greater than 2000 J/kg will
   support occasionally strong updrafts. Effective shear remains weak,
   and will tend to limit storm organization and longevity of more
   intense updrafts, but some marginally severe hail is possible this
   morning. A severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated at this time
   given the modest environmental conditions. However, storms may
   become better organized and/or develop further east and south across
   MN later today as capping erodes and the airmass further
   destabilizes. Trends will be monitored and any increasing threat
   will be addresses separately as it unfolds this afternoon.

   ..Leitman/Dial.. 07/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   49359483 48859468 48459481 47919516 47579555 47059623
               46789681 46649733 46669758 46749784 46969807 47219798
               47889743 48859695 48999668 49029520 49399521 49359483