Mesoscale Discussion 1452
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

   Areas affected...southeast LA...far southern MS...Mobile Bay

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130653Z - 130800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two may acquire transient rotation/weak
   supercell characteristics overnight.  A brief/weak tornado cannot be
   ruled out.  The forecast coverage/magnitude of the tornado risk will
   probably preclude a tornado watch issuance unless observational
   trends change.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KLIX shows a storm with weak
   supercell structure southeast of New Orleans moving north within an
   outer convective band from Tropical Storm Barry.  The 06z Slidell,
   LA raob depicted weak buoyancy (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE) with a very
   moist profile and poor lapse rates.  However, inputting the observed
   storm motion of storms near the central Gulf Coast is yielding
   between 200-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH.  Given the quasi-discrete storm
   mode in the aforementioned environment in the northeast quadrant of
   Tropical Storm Barry, it is possible weak low-level mesocyclones
   could episodically develop over the next several hours.  A
   brief/weak tornado is the main threat.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 07/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29298974 30579056 30988933 30508702 30028702 29868834
               28788873 29298974