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Mesoscale Discussion 1388 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2019
Areas affected...Portions of central Nebraska and Nebraska Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490...493...
Valid 060248Z - 060445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490, 493
continues.
SUMMARY...A small bowing segment will pose a threat of severe wind
gusts in WW 493. Activity has mostly diminished in WW 490, though
marginally severe hail remains possible in the Nebraska Panhandle.
DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has developed in WW 493 and is
moving southeastward out of Cherry County. The environment --
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 kts of effective shear -- will
remain supportive of storm organization. The main threat with this
activity should be severe wind gusts. A few instances of large hail
are also possible with near 8 C/km lapse rates across the area;
however, linear storm mode should keep the hail threat isolated in
nature. This line of activity should eventually weaken as it moves
into a increasingly capped environment, as sampled by the 00Z LBF
sounding, to its south.
Farther west in the Nebraska Panhandle, strong/severe storms have
persisted in WW 490. These storms have produced a few large hail
reports in the last hour to two. While the environment is similarly
supportive of organized storms as with points eastward, this
activity will be modulated by rising mid-level height and increase
MLCIN with time. With WW 490 set to expire at 9 PM MDT, it is
possible that storms could persist near severe thresholds slightly
beyond WW expiration.
..Wendt.. 07/06/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...
LAT...LON 42700024 42000004 41160013 41060035 41060089 41070217
41050260 41090346 41310427 41600458 42090430 42810352
42950213 42900065 42700024
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