Mesoscale Discussion 1365
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2019

   Areas affected...much of Wyoming...far western Nebraska...and far
   southwestern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041956Z - 042200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored for a possible
   Tornado Watch issuance later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery indicate a deepening cumulus
   field tied to higher terrain in central/north-central Wyoming, with
   a few lightning strikes now noted near convective towers.  These
   trends should continue given continued sunshine/insolation and
   modest low-level advection of boundary layer moisture, with 50s to
   low 60s dewpoints in central and eastern Wyoming and vicinity
   beneath steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg
   MUCAPE.  An increase in convection is expected to continue in this
   environment, with vertical shear favoring organized convection and a
   few supercells - especially as low-level flow increases toward
   evening.  The environmental parameter space suggests the presence of
   large (perhaps significant) hail and damaging wind gusts with the
   storms, with tornado potential maximized north through east of CYS
   later.

   Given these convective trends, a Tornado Watch is being considered,
   and may be coordinated with affected local forecast offices between
   20-21Z.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 07/04/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43860856 44320719 44530596 44260457 43880350 42910283
               41460302 41220422 41380618 41750740 42340862 42880888
               43380879 43860856