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Mesoscale Discussion 1362 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019
Areas affected...southeast North Dakota...west-central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480...
Valid 040416Z - 040515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may persist beyond the scheduled
05Z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480 and a local
extension in time may be needed, but a new watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were occurring across south-central and
southeast ND at 0410Z along a nearly stationary front, with
transient stronger updrafts noted on recent regional radar imagery.
Latest objective analysis shows strong instability in place with
MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. In combination with 30-40 kts of
shear, the environment remains supportive of an isolated stronger
storm reaching severe levels for the next hour or two with large
hail and strong wind gusts possible. A local watch extension in
time may be needed to address the threat beyond 05Z, but a new watch
is not currently planned.
..Bunting.. 07/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46069629 45939733 45959832 46009932 46129963 46329945
46539865 46739814 47189689 47209635 46779616 46069629
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